Recommended picks for tomorrow on the TSX are TD.TO or ABX.TO based on technical analysis.
TD.TO was down 0.45%
ABX was up 4.74%!!!
Monday, November 8, 2010
Follow UP from Yesterday's Recommendations
Should've bought my own recommendation from yesterday today:
Recommended picks for tomorrow on the TSX are TD.TO or ABX.TO based on technical analysis.
TD.TO was down 0.45%
ABX was up 4.74%!!!
Recommended picks for tomorrow on the TSX are TD.TO or ABX.TO based on technical analysis.
TD.TO was down 0.45%
ABX was up 4.74%!!!
Down 5.1%, and Moving onto Trade 2 of 187 on My Quest to Invest to a Million
| StatusTracking | |
| Trade# | 1 |
| Current Holding | Chevron (NYSE:CVX) |
| Buy Price (CDN$) | $87.82 |
| Sell Price (CDN$) | $83.43 |
| Gain/Loss | -5.10% |
Pulled the trigger on Chevron today. Sold it. Technical analysis of the candlestick chart just doesn't give the warm and fuzzies. Nor does being in the US space. Too subject to currency fluctuation. Too many hassles doing the calculation conversions. The opportunity costs of being somewhere other than here are just too great.
Lesson learned here – don't buy exclusively on speculation (earning's announcement), do more analysis before buying, don't buy stock that's trading at the 1-year high.
New strategy. Track top 60 listings on the TSX. Analyze by sector. Choose a sector that is showing strength based on the charts, and buy a stock in that sector based on a well thought out analysis.
Created the links to analyze by sector (note, stockcharts.com couldn't recognize any tickers that ended with .un, so the following have been eliminated from the analysis:
Ticker Sector
YLO.UN Consumer Discretionary
AET.UN Energy
COS.UN Energy
ERF.UN Energy
PWT.UN Energy
Consumer Staples
http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?wn.to,%20l.to,%20mru.a.to,%20sap.to,%20sc.to Consumer Discretionary
http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?ctc.a.to,%20gil.to,%20mg.to,%20sir.b.to,%20tri.to,%20thi.to,%20ylo.un.to
Energy #1
http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?cco.to,%20cnq.to,%20cve.to,%20enb.to,%20eca.to,%20hse.to,%20imo.to,%20nxy.to,%20su.to,%20tlm.to,%20trp.to
Energy #2
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=trp.to
Healthcare
http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?vrx.to
Industrials
http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?bbd.b.to,%20cnr.to,%20cp.to,%20snc.to
Information Technology
http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?rim.to
Materials #1
http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?aem.to,%20agu.to,%20abx.to,%20eld.to,%20fm.to,%20g.to,%20img.to,%20k.to,%20pot.to,%20tck.b.to
Materials #2
http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?imn.to,%20yri.to
Telecommunications
http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?rci.b.to,%20bce.to,%20t.to
Utilities
http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?fts.to,%20ta.to
Based on the new strategy, won't be buying today. Gotta go back to the early day postings of the blog and do the proper analysis.
Sunday, November 7, 2010
Down 3.2% on the Quest to Invest to a Million
StatusTracking | |
| Trade# | 1 |
| Current Holding | Chevron (NYSE:CVX) |
| Purchase Price (CDN$) | $87.82 |
| Current Price (CDN$) | $85.00 |
| Gain/Loss | -3.20% |
This is do-it-yourself investing 101– up and down, hoping for gains, cringing at losses, and controlling emotions. We'd rather be up 4% going into week three, but we/re down 3.2% Temporarily off track.
Such is life, business, and pleasure. The course that you set out to get to the end takes a few detours. What matters is that you take the detours and get to where you need to be.
You have to analyze the facts, and leave the emotions on the side.
Dow Jones Industrial Analysis (DJIA): Bull/bear split almost 50/50
Integrated Oil Industry Analysis: Indications of trend reversal – current trend up, on the cusp of trending down
Chevron Candlestick Analysis (Monthly Chart): Price wasn't able to break resistance, and the hanging man logged on Friday indicate this one is going over the week or month.
http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1288987200000&chddm=3910&chddi=1800&chls=CandleStick&q=NYSE:CVX&ntsp=0&fct=big
http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1288987200000&chddm=3910&chddi=1800&chls=CandleStick&q=NYSE:CVX&ntsp=0&fct=big
5-Day Chart: Three white soldiers and high volumes closed the week, indicating the price will go up on Monday
1-Day Chart: Three white soldiers and high volumes closed the day, indicating the price will go up on Monday
http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CVX&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&c=
http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CVX&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&c=
Conclusion: Continue to hold. Tomorrow we should be in the green.
Recommended picks for tomorrow on the TSX are TD.TO or ABX.TO based on technical analysis.
Thursday, November 4, 2010
Down 2.8% on the Quest to Invest to a Million
We're on a mission to make a million by investing $25,000 in one company at a time. We're gonna sell the company every time it gains 2% from the purchase price. It'll take 187 trades to get to a million.
On the quest to make it to a million in 187 trades, we're still on trade one - Chevron (NYSE: CVX). The little detail here is that the shares were bought in Canadian dollars, and the actual share price is listed in US dollars, so daily currency conversion is required to determine where we're really at.
We're down 2.8%. Not too shabby! On the day we bought CVX, it was valued at a price of $84.83USD per share, and the currency exchange rate was 1.034. Today, it closed at $85.14 per share, which is actually $85.38 per share after the currency conversion.
On the quest to make it to a million in 187 trades, we're still on trade one - Chevron (NYSE: CVX). The little detail here is that the shares were bought in Canadian dollars, and the actual share price is listed in US dollars, so daily currency conversion is required to determine where we're really at.
We're down 2.8%. Not too shabby! On the day we bought CVX, it was valued at a price of $84.83USD per share, and the currency exchange rate was 1.034. Today, it closed at $85.14 per share, which is actually $85.38 per share after the currency conversion.
Chevron had a great day today! Up 2.95%. What scares me the most about the chart for CVX is the fact that it's reaching resistance it experienced at the end of October
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?CVX
The entire market had a great day today. 29 of the Dow 30 posted gains. Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) being the only stock in the red, but even that, not by much (0.17%). http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?AA,AXP,BA,BAC,CAT,CSCO,CVX,DD,DIS,GE,HD,HPQ,IBM,INTC,JNJ,JPM,KFT,KO,MCD,MMM,MRK,MSFT,PFE,PG,T,TRV,UTX,VZ,WMT,XOM
All of the integrated oil companies posted huge gains, ranging from 1.75% to 3.63%. All of these tickers are also trading at prices higher than their 200- and 50-day moving averages.http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?BP,RDS.B,CVX,PTR,TOT,XOM,$DJUSOL
Well, one thing's for sure, we're either on our way up or down tomorrow. Let's hope it's up CVX and down USD, and then we'll be ready to sell, and onto our next stock pick.
OK. Well got whacked on the gold trade, as GLD surged with the overall rise in resource and equity price rises today. It was a good shot though with the tight stop, as this market will come off hard at some point and we want to be players when that happens. The crude short is also looking poor, but still has legs as the market is about to test the 2010 high at $87.15/bbl. Failure at this level would trigger some fairly heavy selling, but we'll need to see that weakness develop by end of trade tomorrow, or we'll have to cover our $85 December put.
Guess we ended up fighting the Fed and you're not supposed to do that. As the old adage goes "if you're not buying the tops and selling the bottoms, you're not dancin!" We'll hold off on buying the US dollar, as it broke to new lows today.
More after the close on Friday - we'll see what happens............................
All of the integrated oil companies posted huge gains, ranging from 1.75% to 3.63%. All of these tickers are also trading at prices higher than their 200- and 50-day moving averages.http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?BP,RDS.B,CVX,PTR,TOT,XOM,$DJUSOL
Well, one thing's for sure, we're either on our way up or down tomorrow. Let's hope it's up CVX and down USD, and then we'll be ready to sell, and onto our next stock pick.
OK. Well got whacked on the gold trade, as GLD surged with the overall rise in resource and equity price rises today. It was a good shot though with the tight stop, as this market will come off hard at some point and we want to be players when that happens. The crude short is also looking poor, but still has legs as the market is about to test the 2010 high at $87.15/bbl. Failure at this level would trigger some fairly heavy selling, but we'll need to see that weakness develop by end of trade tomorrow, or we'll have to cover our $85 December put.
Guess we ended up fighting the Fed and you're not supposed to do that. As the old adage goes "if you're not buying the tops and selling the bottoms, you're not dancin!" We'll hold off on buying the US dollar, as it broke to new lows today.
More after the close on Friday - we'll see what happens............................
Wednesday, November 3, 2010
Down 5.1% on my Quest to Invest to a Million (versus target of being up 4%)
Midweek through week 2, I had hoped to be up 4% on my quest to make a million dollars in 187 trades, but I`m down 5.1%. 9.1% off target, but still in the game. All you need is a chip and a chair.
I think Chevron`s (NYSE: CVX) reached the TSN turning point. The overall trend for the stock is up. For the past couple of days it`s moved downward, but based on the gravestone doji it posted today (and arguably yesterday), it looks like the share price is about to make like the Dixie Chicks and get ``ready, ready, ready, ready to run``
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=cvx
All 7 of the Integrated Oil companies (BP, RDS, CVX, PTR, TOT, XOM, $DJUSOL) posted gains today, ranging from 0.19% to 3.02%. http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?BP,RDS.B,CVX,PTR,TOT,XOM,$DJUSOL
I think Chevron`s (NYSE: CVX) reached the TSN turning point. The overall trend for the stock is up. For the past couple of days it`s moved downward, but based on the gravestone doji it posted today (and arguably yesterday), it looks like the share price is about to make like the Dixie Chicks and get ``ready, ready, ready, ready to run``
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=cvx
All 7 of the Integrated Oil companies (BP, RDS, CVX, PTR, TOT, XOM, $DJUSOL) posted gains today, ranging from 0.19% to 3.02%. http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?BP,RDS.B,CVX,PTR,TOT,XOM,$DJUSOL
The Fed announcement ended up being a non-event. The headline amount for bond purchases ended up being $600 billion till the end of Q2 2011, more or less in line with market consensus, a bit higher than the $500 billion that had been speculated upon, but slightly lower than the $100 billion/month figure that had been circulating in the market.
The Dow, gold, USD, and oil ended up with fairly subdued price action considering the pre-announcement expectations.The stimulative effects of this move are already factored into current price levels so tomorrow the market opens in our view, with a (now what) attitude. We want to trade counter-trend to the latest "one-way bets" which are long oil, long gold, and short the USD.
Hang with short GLD trade, which was looking good early in the session, then the market rallied to only post modest loss for the day. Maintain tight stop above $134.
We'll add another short to the latest recommendations as we feel oil is overbought and due for a significant slump. Buy the December $85/bbl put for $2/bbl, looking for a $10/bbl decline over the next two weeks. This is a very tight trade, with less than two weeks to expiry. We'll need some downside movement prior to the end of Friday's session, or the option will experience significant time decay.
Stay tuned for our $USD recommendation tomorrow!
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
Trade 1 of 187 on my Quest to Invest to a Million
On my quest to make a million dollars in 187 trades (by selling every stock that I buy once it has recognized a 2% gain), I'm down 5.6% and haven't been able to sell Trade 1 yet. I've been at it for a little over a week.
Seth Godin would call this The Dip. I downloaded the audiobook this weekend from the itunes store, http://www.apple.com/ca/itunes
so maybe I set myself up for the predicament I'm in right now.
Nonetheless, it was an excellent book.
So, some good news today for Chevron, it's up 0.86% today. Pretty lame that I'm excited about that, but you take what you can get right?
http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=cvx
Status update: I bought it at $87.82, today it's worth $82.87. I'm down 5.6%. I have a really high tolerance for risk and there is a dividend light at the end of this tunnel, so I'm gonna continue to hold. There's a big night tonight and a big day tomorrow that has the power to move the markets significantly.
The investment world waits with baited breath tonight for results from the US midterm elections and the US Federal reserve announcement tomorrow and the expectation is that another round of quanititative easing short for "money printing" in an effort to stimulate the stagnant US economy.
Republicans are expected to gain control of the US house of representatives but fall short of taking control of the US senate. This is generally viewed as "friendly to the market" as republican policies are more business oriented. The US Feds decision to buy more US Treasuries should keep interest rates lower and drive bond prices higher.
All these major themes of course "baked into" the market so tomorrow will probably be a classic case of buy the rumour, sell the fact, which sets up for some fairly volatile trading action on any surprises to the aforementioned themes. Viewing the charts ahead of these announcements is always interesting. Scanning the Dow 30 tonight gives me the distinct visual impression that we're gonna break hard lower tomorrow. I'm seeing very few breakout patterns or bullish continuation candlesticks, instead there is lots of dark cloud cover, shooting stars, dojis, and bearish engulfing patterns.
http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?AA,AXP,BA,BAC,CAT,CSCO,CVX,DD,DIS,GE,HD,HPQ,IBM,INTC,JNJ,JPM,KFT,KO,MCD,MMM,MRK,MSFT,PFE,PG,T,TRV,UTX,VZ,WMT,XOM
I'm looking for areas to counter-trend trade and right now there are four major markets where the air is getting just a little bit thin. Those areas are the US dollar, US bonds, gold, and oil. These are all "one-way bets" with lots of solid rationale why the current trends will continue, US dollar (down), US bonds (price higher, yield down), gold (higher), and oil (higher). Trees don't grow to the sky. All these puppies are gonna end badly and I wanna be on the other end when these markets reverse.
Gold's run defies logic. It's a yellow metal, I repeat a yellow metal, and not much more than that. It doesn't generate cash, pay a dividend, or have a smart management team, and as Mister T aptly noted, a single person can only carry 45 pounds around their neck.
GLD gapped lower about a week ago has reversed to fill that gap technically, and today put in a fairly negative candlestick.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%20gld
Good spot here to short GLD with a fairly tight stop at $135. This may not be the top, but the first good sign in the last couple of months that we could be rolling to the downside.
I found the best charting analysis website to date: Stock Charts. Check it out!!!
www.stockcharts.com
Seth Godin would call this The Dip. I downloaded the audiobook this weekend from the itunes store, http://www.apple.com/ca/itunes
so maybe I set myself up for the predicament I'm in right now.
Nonetheless, it was an excellent book.
http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=cvx
Status update: I bought it at $87.82, today it's worth $82.87. I'm down 5.6%. I have a really high tolerance for risk and there is a dividend light at the end of this tunnel, so I'm gonna continue to hold. There's a big night tonight and a big day tomorrow that has the power to move the markets significantly.
The investment world waits with baited breath tonight for results from the US midterm elections and the US Federal reserve announcement tomorrow and the expectation is that another round of quanititative easing short for "money printing" in an effort to stimulate the stagnant US economy.
Republicans are expected to gain control of the US house of representatives but fall short of taking control of the US senate. This is generally viewed as "friendly to the market" as republican policies are more business oriented. The US Feds decision to buy more US Treasuries should keep interest rates lower and drive bond prices higher.
All these major themes of course "baked into" the market so tomorrow will probably be a classic case of buy the rumour, sell the fact, which sets up for some fairly volatile trading action on any surprises to the aforementioned themes. Viewing the charts ahead of these announcements is always interesting. Scanning the Dow 30 tonight gives me the distinct visual impression that we're gonna break hard lower tomorrow. I'm seeing very few breakout patterns or bullish continuation candlesticks, instead there is lots of dark cloud cover, shooting stars, dojis, and bearish engulfing patterns.
http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?AA,AXP,BA,BAC,CAT,CSCO,CVX,DD,DIS,GE,HD,HPQ,IBM,INTC,JNJ,JPM,KFT,KO,MCD,MMM,MRK,MSFT,PFE,PG,T,TRV,UTX,VZ,WMT,XOM
I'm looking for areas to counter-trend trade and right now there are four major markets where the air is getting just a little bit thin. Those areas are the US dollar, US bonds, gold, and oil. These are all "one-way bets" with lots of solid rationale why the current trends will continue, US dollar (down), US bonds (price higher, yield down), gold (higher), and oil (higher). Trees don't grow to the sky. All these puppies are gonna end badly and I wanna be on the other end when these markets reverse.
Gold's run defies logic. It's a yellow metal, I repeat a yellow metal, and not much more than that. It doesn't generate cash, pay a dividend, or have a smart management team, and as Mister T aptly noted, a single person can only carry 45 pounds around their neck.
GLD gapped lower about a week ago has reversed to fill that gap technically, and today put in a fairly negative candlestick.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%20gld
Good spot here to short GLD with a fairly tight stop at $135. This may not be the top, but the first good sign in the last couple of months that we could be rolling to the downside.
I found the best charting analysis website to date: Stock Charts. Check it out!!!
www.stockcharts.com
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